Amman: The Jordan Strategy Forum (JSF) has released a policy paper titled “Geo-economic Conflict: The Defining Feature of Global Risks 2026”, highlighting key findings from the Global Risks Report 2026 published by the World Economic Forum.
According to Jordan News Agency, the forum indicated that the global landscape is no longer characterized by isolated and limited shocks. Instead, the world is experiencing a continuous chain of disruptions, starting with global financial crises and extending through the COVID-19 pandemic, international conflicts, and regional tensions. These events have led to disruptions in supply chains and global trade, inflationary pressures, slower economic growth, and rising public debt.
The paper emphasized that these shifts have notably impacted societal welfare and stability, while simultaneously hampering the ability of governments and companies to engage in long-term planning. This has made resilience and adaptability crucial for shaping countries’ developmental trajectories.
The forum underscored the significance of the Global Risks Report 2026 as a leading international reference for tracking global risk trends and transformations. The report is based on a survey of over 1,300 experts and approximately 11,000 executives from 116 countries, aimed at identifying the most likely threats facing states in the coming years.
The document highlighted that uncertainty has become a hallmark of the global system, as evidenced by the rising Global Uncertainty Index, particularly since early 2024. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, both regionally and globally, are anticipated to exacerbate this trend.
The report categorizes risks into five main groups: societal, technological, geopolitical, environmental, and economic. For the first time, geo-economic conflict has topped the list of short-term global risks, with 18% of respondents identifying it as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. It is noteworthy that the survey was conducted before the onset of the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian conflict.
The forum stressed the importance of geo-economic conflict not only due to its ranking but also because of its broad and interconnected impact. This includes economic sanctions, tariffs and trade measures, investment controls, subsidies, and supply chain restrictions, all of which are increasingly leveraged within the framework of national security and strategic economic independence.
Interestingly, purely economic risks, distinct from geo-economic conflicts, did not appear in the top 10 global risks. Respondents perceived them as less likely to trigger a sudden and widespread global crisis compared to geopolitical conflicts, ideological and cultural divisions, and technological disruptions.
Regarding technological risks, the forum noted their continued rise in both the short and long term, with misinformation, disinformation, and cybersecurity threats ranking highly. These threats extend beyond the digital realm, undermining trust in information and institutions, deepening polarization, and increasing societies’ vulnerability to economic and social shocks.
The forum also pointed to the growing prominence of artificial intelligence risks, which have climbed from lower rankings in the short term to fifth place among long-term risks. This shift reflects increasing global concern that AI could transition from being a productivity driver to a potential source of amplified misinformation, content manipulation, and influence over public opinion and decision-making.
Societal risks remain a central aspect of the global risk landscape, with ideological and cultural divisions ranking among the top current risks. Inequality continues to pose a significant threat in both the short and long term, primarily due to its strong links with other challenges such as economic slowdown, misinformation, erosion of civil liberties, and social unrest.
At the regional level, the forum identified a distinct divergence in the nature of expected risks across Arab countries. It noted that advanced economies like the United Kingdom, Singapore, Austria, and Ireland face similar risk patterns to those confronting Arab states, including economic contraction, labor shortages, inflation, debt, and inadequate public services. This convergence underscores that risks are no longer confined to specific geographic areas but have become shared and cross-cutting, given the growing interdependence through supply chains and global trade, where shocks rapidly disseminate across economies.
In light of these findings, the Jordan Strategy Forum emphasized the importance of understanding the nature and trajectory of risks to aid decision-makers in formulating strategies that enhance preparedness, resilience, and the ability to withstand shocks.
The forum stressed the need for adopting balanced and integrated policies to bolster the resilience of Jordan’s economy and improve its capacity to adapt and respond effectively. This entails enhancing governance and institutional readiness by improving efficiency, strengthening responsiveness to shocks, and ensuring regulatory stability.
Furthermore, the forum highlighted the necessity of reinforcing fiscal sustainability and resource management, particularly in public finance, water, and energy, to reduce vulnerabilities and improve efficiency. It advocated for the development of infrastructure and logistics services by upgrading transport networks and supply chains, improving logistics performance, and advancing digital transformation.
The forum also called for a focus on transparent and objective communication through a proactive approach to delivering accurate information clearly and realistically, to raise awareness among citizens and investors, and reduce the risks associated with rumors and misinformation.
