Lebanon and Israel appear close to completing a maritime deal that would permit offshore natural gas exploration and potentially defuse a historic conflict between the Jewish state and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon\u2019s powerbroker. The Qana natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean has long been disputed by Israel and Lebanon, which have been technically at war for decades.<\/p>\n
The two countries have been locked in a maritime border dispute, in part, over coastal drilling rights in the Mediterranean Sea\u2019s potentially hydrocarbon-rich waters. Both have claimed about 860 square kilometers there as being within their exclusive economic zones.<\/p>\n
Elias Bou Saab – Lebanon\u2019s deputy speaker of parliament and lead envoy to the U.S., mediated indirect negotiations. He said the proposed U.S.-brokered deal was produced by thinking \u2014 as he put it \u2014 “outside of the box.” Israel\u2019s high-level security cabinet is expected to discuss the terms Thursday.<\/p>\n
Under the deal, Lebanon would have sovereignty over the area north of Line 23 on the sea map, including the Qana gas field, while Israel will remain in control of the Karish gas field. Observers believe that a foreign company operating under Lebanese license would produce natural gas at Qana, with Israel receiving a partial share of the revenues.<\/p>\n
Although not confirmed, Lebanese officials have suggested that the French company TotalEnergies SE could be involved.<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s prime minister, Yair Lapid, initially welcomed the draft agreement. Even arch foe Hezbollah, Lebanon\u2019s powerful armed militia and political party backed by Iran, has expressed cautious optimism that a deal could be secured.<\/p>\n
But negotiations in the final hours have been delicate and doubts about the economic and political benefits persist.<\/p>\n
Lebanese analyst Dania Koleilat Khatib, an affiliated scholar with Stanford University\u2019s Hoover Institute, told VOA she sees the demarcation as having more value as a way to pressure the Lebanese political elite to resolve their differences than economic benefit at this time.<\/p>\n
\u201cOnce you do the demarcation, you would need a time of agreement to make sure that this is like a de-confliction,\u201d she said. \u201cSo, there would not be any conflict, any clash. I don\u2019t think at this current time it has much of an economic value. First, they need to see if there are proven reserves. After that they start the extraction, so you won\u2019t have the gas before a few years. Once there is gas, and the political class want things to move, there will be more pressure from outside to find a solution, like to elect a president, elect a government, do reforms.\u201d<\/p>\n
Marc Ayoub, an associate fellow at the American University of Beirut’s Issam Fares Institute, told the French news agency AFP that \u201cif commercially viable reservoirs are in fact found,\u201d it could take five to six years to extract gas.<\/p>\n
Although Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened several times to hit Israeli drilling operations, alleging it was infringing on Lebanon\u2019s maritime rights, Khatib and other analysts say Hezbollah doesn\u2019t want a war with Israel because it could ill-afford to retaliate.<\/p>\n
Nizar Abdel Kader, a retired Lebanese Army Brigadier General, told the online publication Breaking Defense that if Israel launches a full-scale war on Hezbollah\u2019s areas of control in Lebanon, there will be extensive destruction, which will likely cause huge anger within the Shiite community against Hezbollah and Iran.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Source: Voice of America<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"